Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.010642 0.012024 0.013519 0.015257 0.017221 0.019374 0.021912
2025-11-16 0.008473 0.010384 0.012624 0.015446 0.018910 0.023027 0.028300
2025-11-23 0.007127 0.009233 0.011843 0.015318 0.019831 0.025504 0.033194
2025-11-30 0.006375 0.008643 0.011584 0.015682 0.021257 0.028596 0.039022
2025-12-07 0.005502 0.007758 0.010798 0.015205 0.021446 0.029994 0.042640
2025-12-14 0.004880 0.007126 0.010261 0.014967 0.021875 0.031680 0.046726
2025-12-21 0.004312 0.006500 0.009653 0.014539 0.021949 0.032816 0.050055
2025-12-28 0.004081 0.006338 0.009687 0.015036 0.023401 0.036048 0.056749
2026-01-04 0.003828 0.006112 0.009596 0.015319 0.024529 0.038857 0.063007
2026-01-11 0.003622 0.005937 0.009562 0.015674 0.025781 0.041936 0.069928
2026-01-18 0.003340 0.005612 0.009257 0.015558 0.026247 0.043772 0.074943
2026-01-25 0.003110 0.005349 0.009028 0.015539 0.026858 0.045872 0.080548
2026-02-01 0.002848 0.005014 0.008657 0.015258 0.027017 0.047255 0.085097
2026-02-08 0.002691 0.004847 0.008558 0.015442 0.027999 0.050133 0.092555
2026-02-15 0.002500 0.004602 0.008300 0.015314 0.028404 0.052011 0.098331
2026-02-22 0.002401 0.004515 0.008314 0.015678 0.029731 0.055645 0.107678
2026-03-01 0.002191 0.004206 0.007897 0.015201 0.029437 0.056248 0.111266
2026-03-08 0.002034 0.003981 0.007620 0.014963 0.029572 0.057657 0.116524
2026-03-15 0.001868 0.003724 0.007260 0.014535 0.029295 0.058238 0.120158
2026-03-22 0.001825 0.003709 0.007365 0.015032 0.030900 0.062639 0.131953
2026-03-29 0.001761 0.003643 0.007364 0.015315 0.032089 0.066289 0.142483
2026-04-05 0.001708 0.003597 0.007399 0.015669 0.033451 0.070394 0.154319
2026-04-12 0.001610 0.003450 0.007216 0.015554 0.033804 0.072413 0.161783